Do players reason by forward induction in dynamic perfect information games?
نویسندگان
چکیده
We conducted an experiment where participants played a perfect-information game against a computer, which was programmed to deviate often from its backward induction strategy right at the beginning of the game. Participants knew that in each game, the computer was nevertheless optimizing against some belief about the participant’s future strategy. It turned out that in the aggregate, participants were likely to respond in a way which is optimal with respect to their best-rationalization extensive form rationalizability conjecture namely the conjecture that the computer is after a larger prize than the one it has foregone, even when this necessarily meant that the computer has attributed future irrationality to the participant when the computer made the first move in the game. Thus, it appeared that participants applied forward induction. However, there exist alternative explanations for the choices of most participants; for example, choices could be based on the extent of risk aversion that participants attributed to the computer in the remainder of the game, rather than to the sunk outside option that the computer has already foregone at the beginning of the game. For this reason, the results of the experiment do not yet provide conclusive evidence for Forward Induction reasoning on the part of the participants.
منابع مشابه
Strategies and interactive beliefs in dynamic games
Interactive epistemology in dynamic games studies forms of strategic reasoning like backward and forward induction by means of a formal representation of players’ beliefs about each other, conditional on each history. Work on this topic typically relies on epistemic models where states of the world specify both strategies and beliefs. Strategies are conjunctions of behavioral conditionals of th...
متن کاملDynamic system of strategic games
Maybe an event can't be modeled completely through one game but there is more chance with several games. With emphasis on players' rationality, we present new properties of strategic games, which result in production of other games. Here, a new attitude to modeling will be presented in game theory as dynamic system of strategic games and its some applications such as analysis of the clash betwe...
متن کاملDynamic Coalitional Agreements - coalitional rationalizability in multi-stage games
This paper extends the concept of coalitional rationalizability of Ambrus(01) to incorporate sequential rationality in multi-stage games with observable actions and incomplete information. Agreements among players are implicit, it is assumed that players cannot communicate with each other during the game. They re°ect a reasoning procedure which entails restricting strategies in a mutually advan...
متن کاملThe Dynamic (In)Stability of Backwards Induction1
The evolutionary basis for predicting the backwards induction solution in generic ̄nite extensive-form games with perfect information is examined. Evolution is modelled using the replicator dynamic in combination with rare mutations that introduce a small change in the proportion of each strategy. The criterion for our judgement is whether this dynamic stabilizes over time at the subgame perfec...
متن کاملStructural Rationality in Dynamic Games
The analysis of dynamic games hinges on assumptions about players’ actions and beliefs at information sets that are not actually reached during game play, and that players themselves do not expect to reach. However, it is not obvious how to elicit intended actions and conditional beliefs at such information sets. Hence, key concepts such as sequential rationality, backward induction, and forwar...
متن کامل